Two days of champions, a crowd betting its heart, and only a few races where a longshot deserves your money.
This weekend the Breeders' Cup comes to Keeneland: two days of the best horses in the world, races worth a million dollars and more, and crowds that bet as much on reputation as on the race in front of them.
For the horseplayer, it is the richest card of the year in more ways than one. It is also one of the easiest days of the year to give your money away.
The crowd bets the names
On most days, the favorite is the favorite for good reason. On Breeders' Cup days, much more of the money comes from people who play only a few times a year. They bet the horse they've read about, the trainer whose name they know, the champion from the spring. That money drives the famous horses' odds down, sometimes well past what their chances deserve.
When a favorite is overbet, every other horse in the race pays more than it should. That is where the value lives, and on Breeders' Cup days there is more of it than usual.
Value isn't enough
Here's the catch. There is a value horse in nearly every race, on any day, at any track. Finding one is not the hard part. The hard part is knowing in which races that value horse is actually likely to win.
In most races, the favorite, the second choice or the third choice wins. A player who backs value horses in every race cashes rarely, and the prices don't cover the misses. The Breeders' Cup doesn't change that arithmetic. Big fields and big names make every race feel like a chance for a longshot. Most of them aren't.
Knowing how to find a value horse is a tool. Knowing where to look is the strategy.
Choose your races, then enjoy the rest
So the approach this weekend is the same as any other weekend, only more so. Pass on most of the card. Choose the few races where the favorite is most beatable and a longshot has a real chance, and put your money there.
Then enjoy the rest. This is the finest racing of the year. Watch the champions in the paddock, listen for the field turning for home, and let the crowd chase every race while you wait for yours. Set an alarm on your phone a few minutes before each race you mean to play, and the rest of the afternoon is yours.
What we do
That's the work we do at 12 Horses Racing. We don't sell horses. Each weekend we find the few races where the favorite is most beatable and a longshot is live, and we hand those races to our members. What they do inside those races is their own handicapping.
We never guarantee a race. No one honestly can. But we count every one, win or miss. The races on our list have been won by a longshot more than half the time, paying more than $20 on average.
You don't have to take our word for it. See the record.
Jamie Russell Long, 12 Horses Racing
